Home > Cricket Development > Seperating Expected Drubbings from meaningful games in WC2011 …

Seperating Expected Drubbings from meaningful games in WC2011 …

I made a list of the games in WC2011 involving either an associate, or Bangladesh/Zimbabwe. I then calculated the ranking differential between the competitors to see what games are expected to be close, vs which ones are mismatches. The list is as follows, with the expected closest games on top, and the worst mismatch at the bottom. I also setup a cutoff point once the differential between the rankings is beyond 6, just for categorization, the top half being games where associates should perform well, and the bottom half being where, well, we should shut off the TV to prevent depression.

I think we should analyze the games in the light of the ranking differential. Even Zimbabwe, a full member, who has had ICC funding of millions while they never played test in the last 6 years, could not stand up to the might of Australia. The game between Kenya and Australia is probably going to gather most flak from the press. Another interesting thing is that only the games from the lower half have been played until now, and we have already declared ICCs decision to exclude the associates a good one !!.

But just to summarize, we should see what will happen in the games in the first section below, rather than the second. And we should do this only after the first round has completed.

# Game (Ranking Difference)
Expected Close Encounters

1 Ireland vs Netherlands (1) – Ireland won by 6 wkts
2 Bangladesh vs WI (1) – WI won by 9wkts, with 38 overs to spare
3 Canada vs Kenya (1) – Canada won by 7 wickets
4 Ireland vs WI (2) – WI won by 44 runs
5 Ireland vs Bangladesh (3) – Bangladesh won by 27 runs
6 Netherlands vs WI (3) – WI won by 215 runs
7 Bangladesh vs England (3) – Bangladesh won by 2 wkts
8 Zimbabwe vs Canada (3) – Zimbabwe won by 175 runs
9 Zimbabwe vs NZ (3) – NZ won by 10 wkts
10 Netherlands vs Bangladesh (4) – Bangladesh won by 7 wickets
11 Zimbabwe vs Pak (4) – Pakistan won by 7 wkts
12 Zimbabwe vs Kenya (4)
13 Bangladesh vs SA (5) – SA won by 206 runs
14 Ireland vs England (6) – Ireland won by 3 wkts.
15 Bangladesh vs India (6) – India won by 87 runs
16 Zimbabwe vs Srilanka (6) Srilanka won by 150+ runs
17 Canada vs NZ (6) – NZ won by 97 runs.

Expected Drubbings
18 Netherlands vs England (7) – England won by 6wkts with 9 balls to spare *
19 Canada vs Pakistan (7) – Pakistan won by 45 runs
20 Kenya vs NZ (7) –  NZ won by 10 wkts
21 Ireland vs SA (8) – SA won by 130 runs
22 Kenya vs Pakistan (8) – Pakistan won by 205 runs
23 Ireland vs India (9) – India won by 5 wkts, with 4 overs to spare
24 Netherlands vs SA (9) – SA won by 231 runs
25 Canada vs Srilanka (9) –  Sri won by 210 runs
26 Netherlands vs India (10) – India won by 5 wickets
27 Zimbabwe vs Australia (10) – Aus won by 92 runs
28 Kenya vs Srilanka (10) – Sri won by 8 wkts with 20+ overs to spare
29 Canada vs Australia (12) – Australia won by 7 wickets with 16 overs to spare
30 Kenya vs Australia (13) – Aus won by 60 runs

Categories: Cricket Development
  1. February 23, 2011 at 7:19 pm

    Just updated with the games from last 2 days. Net/Eng was expected to be a drubbing due to the ranking differential, but has turned out to be the closest game so far in the tournament. Ken/Pak lived up to (lack of) expectations

  2. February 26, 2011 at 3:28 am

    Updated the list above with the Ireland-Bangladesh result. Differential in the rankings was (3), and the game lived up to the expectations of being a close one. Unfortunately for Ireland, their lack of experience showed. This was a critical game, as now, in order to make the quarters, Ireland has to beat both WI and Eng, and then Netherlands. Bangladesh however needs to beat only WI and Netherlands now to get through, which looks fairly possible for them at this point.

  3. February 28, 2011 at 1:46 pm

    Updated with the results for today from the WI/Net and Zim/Can games. Pretty nasty day for associate cricket. Both were expected to be close games, and both turned out to by, not only competitionless, but also games which meandered to meaninglesness after 5 overs of the second innings.

  4. March 1, 2011 at 8:56 pm

    Well it was an expected drubbing in the Sri/Ken game. Updated with that info in the post.

  5. March 2, 2011 at 6:28 pm

    Updating the list after Ireland’s win today against England. It is still unbelievable though.

  6. March 3, 2011 at 9:21 pm

    Pretty much the Net/SA lived up to being the mismatch we expected. Can/Pak, a little surprising.

  7. March 4, 2011 at 11:34 pm

    Updated after Ban/WI decimation game, and the most boring game of the tournament between ZIm and NZ. Both were expected to be close encounters !!! And Ban was actually higher than WI in rankings !!

  8. March 11, 2011 at 10:55 pm

    Updating after the Ireland/WI and Bang/Eng game …. disappointing for Ireland. But in my opinion, they lost due to more than just one bad decision. If KO Brien was going to hit like that, then they should have taken the powerplay. Secondly, when the run rate needed is more than 11, Ireland should look at their ability with the bat and also the ability of the WI team with the ball to see that they cant do this by taking doubles on every ball. Powerplay should have been taken at 187/4. The target should have been 50 runs in the powerplay, and nothing crazy like trying to hit a six on every ball.

  9. March 13, 2011 at 11:30 pm

    Updating after the Ken/Aus and NZ/Can games. Not sure what Canada was tryingto do, they were somewhere in the middle of “going for it” and “playing out the overs”. The Kenya games did not turn out to the biggest mismatch of the tournament as it was expected. Kenya did quite well, losing only by 60 runs.

  1. No trackbacks yet.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: